Plurality of Dems Think Replacing Biden Gives Party Better Shot at 2024 Victory

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A plurality of Democrats think the party has a better chance of keeping the White House in 2024 if Joe Biden is replaced as the candidate, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.

Pollsters asked Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents if they thought “Democrats have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 if Joe Biden is the party’s nominee, or if someone else is the party’s nominee?” Forty-four percent of respondents said they thought Democrats had a better shot at winning if Biden is replaced, while 36 percent said keeping Biden as the candidate would improve the party’s chances.

That overall response was driven by Democrat-leaning independents. While Democrats were evenly split on whether fielding Biden as a candidate would be ideal, 51 percent of Democrat-leaning independents said Biden should be replaced, compared with 26 percent of the same group who indicated Biden should remain the 2024 candidate.

When asked whether nominating Donald Trump would help Republicans win the presidency in 2024, 57 percent of Republican respondents concurred, while 29 percent said the GOP stood a better chance of winning with a different candidate. However, just 37 percent of Republican-leaning independents said the GOP could win more easily with Trump, while 47 percent said the GOP would be better off with someone else.

The full survey was conducted through interviews from October 18-22, among 469 Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents, and 413 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Results among the Democrat subset have a 6.4-point margin of error, while results amid the Republican subset have a 6.8-point margin of error.

The poll results come as Biden’s job approval rating remains low amid a period of inflation and supply-chain shocks. The Biden administration has struggled to process record numbers of migrants crossing the southern border, and was widely criticized for its handling of the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Biden’s approval rating sat at 42.7 percent as of Sunday in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Similarly, FiveThirtyEight‘s polling average showed that 43.2 percent of Americans approve of the president’s performance compared with 51.1 percent who disapprove.

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